An AP headline blares:

"Whites lift McCain to slim lead over Obama in poll"

The byline credits Alan Fram with the brilliant deduction, made after noting that "lopsided support from working-class and suburban whites have lifted Republican John McCain to a slender lead over Barack Obama..."

The poll results showed that McCain holds a 13 point lead with men and seniors and a 23 point lead among rural voters. 

I wondered if the AP poll identified the gap between Obama and McCain among black voters so I sought out the poll.  While the headline indicates that White voters tipped the scale, the poll itself doesn't seem to extrapolate percentages based on race.  

I decided to try to do some deductive calculations using voter ratios from the last election. It seems fair to conclude that for many election cycles, Black voters have voted in lock-step with Democrats.  (This in spite of the Democratic party's continued effort to push policy positions that undermine all people who seek to improve their station in life, regardless of color.)

CNN election results from 2004 summarize voter ratios based on race.  In 2004, for example, 11% of voters were Black and approximately 88% of Black voters voted for the Democratic candidate.  If 88% of the black voters in the AP poll vote for Obama than Obama will secure just over 9% of the overall vote.

If Black voters were to vote in a bi-partisan manner, similar to White voters, the shift would be dramatic, even if one allows that the majority of Black voters would vote Democratic. 

In 2004,  58% of White voters voted Republican. Assume, therefore that 58% of Black voters would vote Democratic. This would shift Obama's secure vote from 9% to 6%.

In this very tight election season, a shift in the very lopsided Black vote would shift the poll results from McCain 48 - Obama 44 to McCain 51 - Obama 41. This would no longer be a close election.

As the polls tighten, the inevitable undercurrents suggesting White voters are racist and won't vote for a Black nominee have begun.  

All of the conservatives I know would welcome with open arms a conservative Black candidate. One might consider a challenge facing conservatives who hope that more people of color will open their minds to conservative ideology: The absolute ostracism of people of color, by people of color, who profess support of conservative positions.  I believe there are many brilliant conservative people of color who choose to remain outside the political fray because the cost of involvement is simply too high in their community.

I digress...

The refusal of conservative White voters to consider Obama as a reasonable alternative to McCain has NOTHING to do with his race and everything to do with the fact that he is the most liberal Senator in office right now.  His policies will move the U.S. towards bigger government and more reliance on UN policies to drive our foreign policy. His support of the Global Poverty Act should be enough to convince anyone that Obama is the wrong man at the wrong time.

So, perhaps the title of Mr. Fram's article should have been:

"Blacks ensure Obama stays competitive with McCain in poll"