Tuesday, January 08, 2008

The pundits are spinning like crazy tonight... What does it all mean? Does anybody really know?

Chris Wallace says if McCain wins he will have the momentum. Does he really think that a win in New Hampshire will erase years of positions that have annoyed and offended a large percentage of Republican voters?

Thompson has already walked away, conceding that at less than 2% he isn't even in the pack in New Hampshire. He has started his bus tour of South Carolina...

Giuliani has not yet broken 10% in New Hampshire. The interesting thing about Giuliani is that he has name recognition and a brand label that none of the other Republicans- barring perhaps McCain- can claim so his need to campaign is less important than the others. I would have expected a higher turnout for Giuliani. His less than 10% showing should raise concerns about his ability to sway the base in non-liberal states in his direction. In a process driven by a caucus or primary system relying on the base, this is problematic for him.

Huckabee at 10 - 13% is where he should expect to be. His popularity in many states will not break 15% unless he can quickly convince a lot of people he has more substance than we have seen to date.

And then we have Romney- second but nowhere near the third place finisher. He continues to show a consistent level of support that currently no other candidate can claim.

If Romney can finish first or second in the next several primaries, he will be in a great position going into Super Tuesday. no matter what the pundits try to spin...

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