Saturday, January 05, 2008

Interestingly naive comments by political pundits suggest that Romney can't afford another 2nd place finish. They want to convince people that another second place finish would spell the end for Romney. Could these pundits simply be anti-Romney talking heads for other candidates?

While Romney should obviously hope for a win in NH, a second place finish in New Hampshire should embolden Romney to move full-speed ahead. This is especially true if McCain takes first.

If Romney comes in second to McCain then Huckabee could, at best, be third. Is he then out of the race as well? If McCain and Romney are 1 & 2 in New Hampshire then is a third place Giuliani or a third place Thompson out of it as well? It should go without question that the fourth and fifth place finishers should hang it up the morning after.

Ridiculous!!

Iowa represents mile one of a very long marathon. Better to be consistently in the top couple of the pack than to be first once and third or fourth or even fifth the rest of the race.

The Iowa caucus brought out a very large number of Evangelical voters and that is why Huckabee won the primary. Do the pundits think that a difference of 10,000 voters in Iowa really make that big of a difference? Evangelical voters are certainly influential in many states, but by no means do they make up a majority of the base across the country. Was Huckabee's victory a fluke? Do voters really know Huckabee's message or were they responding to his background as an Evangelical minister? It will be at least a month before anyone can shake out the truth behind Huckabee's win.

New Hampshire is a notoriously independent state with long ties to McCain. No one should be surprised if McCain manages to pull out a win there. Independent voters of New Hampshire do not represent the typical Republican caucus goer or primary voter across the country.

Giuliani has focused on Florida and should be expecting a win there. Romney should realize a second there keeps him in the game, as well.

Any talking head contentions about a Romney problem before Super Tuesday are premature and designed to discourage his supporters.

The bottom line- it is always better to be first, but second place in the early states does bring credibility and does build momentum going into Super Tuesday.

Finally, every Republican candidate has experience and skills that trump those of every Democrat running. That being said, Republican voters should honestly assess the potential of the five candidates, all of whom are very talented and experienced politicians, to fight the inevitable flood of money and media that will be used to attempt to hoodwink the American people in the 2008 election.

This will be an election to end all elections. We will see the negative influence of the McCain-Feingold Act and we will long for a time when money isn't the key. But that is not now. Money will be determinative and the candidates with the most access to money will ultimately have the best hope of winning.

All Americans need to pay attention to the many serious issues facing our
country and vote for the candidate who is most likely to help us wake up and find that it is again morning in America.

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